Tesla Model 3
Continued incentives and subsidies will be crucial market drivers for growth, finds Frost & Sullivan’s Mobility team
London – April 6, 2017 – The electric vehicle (EV) market is booming. Approximately 25 new electric vehicle models are likely to be launched later this year with Chevrolet Bolt and Tesla Model 3 being the most anticipated. The availability of incentives and subsidies in the market, significant investment by original equipment manufacturers, new entrants, and lower battery prices are factors propelling double-digit growth. However, the lack of standardisation in charging technology, absence of a fixed business model, and short-distance range of EVs still need to be addressed.
“Incentives for battery EVs (BEVs) are greater than plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) as governments support emission-free mobility,” said Frost & Sullivan Mobility Industry Manager Prajyot Sathe. “Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom will have the highest impact on EV prices due to availability of cash incentives, while the Netherlands EV market declined drastically due to a decrease in incentives.”
Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook, 2017, a part of Frost & Sullivan’s Mobility: Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Service program, finds that the EV market grew over 15 times at a remarkable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 72.1 percent from 2011 to 2016. This year the global EV market is likely to grow by 25.6 percent with 950,000 units sold. 48V mild hybrids and PHEVs are likely to be key technologies adopted in the European Union (EU), while the Chinese government pushes vehicle electrification. Full hybrid standardisation is likely across models in Japan by 2025.
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Over 774,025 EVs were sold globally in 2016, of which 63.4 percent were BEVs and 36.6 percent were PHEVs. Other developments include:
- The Middle East, South Africa, South America, and a few countries in APAC commenced sales of EVs in 2016. Though the market is not very attractive for automakers, the Middle East is likely to be a demand hub for premium EVs.
- The Chinese market grew by 85.0 percent, with over 351,071 unit sales capturing over 45.4 percent of the market share.
- The EV market is moving towards higher battery capacities of over 60kWh to increase the range of an EV up to 200 miles on a single charge.
- Charging infrastructure associations and companies such as CHAdeMO are focusing on geographic expansion, which includes Afghanistan, China, Colombia, Croatia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Ukraine.
- Samsung will compete with Tesla’s Gigafactory in developing battery packs. Tesla is focusing on reducing the cost of the battery pack; however, Samsung is focusing on large battery packs above 100kWh that will provide a range of over 370 miles and recharge in less than 20 minutes.
- Combined Charging System (CCS) and CHAdeMO will focus on launching high-power charging stations from 150kW to 350kW of power capacity.
- EVs with a 200-mile range will be launched by General Motors (Chevrolet Bolt) and Tesla (Model 3). Most of the leading OEMs will relaunch their flagship models as second-generation models. BMW i3 and Ford Focus Electric will be launched with a facelift.
“Tesla, the market leader, is set for strong competition. Premium German brands are planning to launch luxury EVs in order to compete directly with Tesla in terms of range, recharging time, and inductive charging,” noted Sathe. “A number of start-ups such as Lucid Motors, NextEV, and Faraday Future, aim to compete with Tesla by launching their plans to introduce EVs in the market.”